Carbon credit markets can anchor climate cooperation in 2026
VCMI’s Executive Director, Mark Kenber, shares his thoughts on what 2026 might hold for international efforts on climate – and how carbon markets can help.
I’m sure I’m not alone in feeling that the start to this year has been unsettling. As is often the case on a personal level, the transition from the festive season to the new year brings a sharp reset, but this year the reset feels global and geopolitical, as well as personal – even if for many of us they are closely intertwined.
But disruption can also sharpen priorities. Rather than fragmenting climate action, 2026 should be a year to double down on what works. Two principles are critical: cooperation and consistency.
Cooperation on climate now matters more than ever
Multilateral cooperation remains central to delivering the Paris Agreement, but in today’s political context, plurilateral approaches can prove especially effective. Groups of willing governments can move faster, build confidence and demonstrate impact, even when consensus is difficult. Their leadership can then point the way to others who may initially be more reluctant. International carbon markets, including under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6, offer one of the most practical tools to do exactly this.
High-integrity carbon credit markets can lower the cost of mitigation, mobilize climate finance and unlock investment in critical technologies. This is widely recognized: over 70% of NDCs signal an intention to use Article 6. [1] The enabling conditions are also improving.
Quality is increasingly being rewarded, with price premiums emerging for credits aligned with ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles and with high ratings from independent agencies. The finalization of Article 6.4 eligibility rules has strengthened confidence in supply. At the same time, government leadership is returning through plurilateral initiatives, notably The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets, led by Kenya, Singapore and the UK, the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets, and the Article 6 Ambition Alliance.
Demand signals are also recovering. Large offtake agreements, such as Microsoft’s purchase of over 25 million carbon removal credits, alongside buyer coalitions like Symbiosis, point to renewed confidence. Recent research also indicates that 90% of existing buyers plan to continue purchasing carbon credits and expand their investments.[2]
To convert momentum into durable impact, clarity and consistency are essential
With the 1.5°C threshold at risk, effective carbon markets are no longer optional.
Confidence is the currency of these markets. Persistent uncertainty around integrity, accounting and reputational risk has constrained investment. That is beginning to change. The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets has already established Shared Principles for high-integrity use. The priority now is embedding these principles into national policies and aligning them with voluntary corporate frameworks.
Encouragingly, 2026 should bring further convergence, with updated standards from SBTi, ISO and the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. Greater coherence will allow companies to act faster and at scale.
The road ahead
Despite global turbulence, plurilateral cooperation through carbon markets offers a realistic pathway forward. Coalitions of the willing are mobilizing finance, directing it to high-impact projects, and reinforcing trust in markets.
VCMI will continue working with governments and partners to support the high-integrity use of carbon credits. With coordinated, plurilateral action, 2026 can still be a turning point for climate cooperation.